Performance Metrics

MangoLabs calculates comprehensive performance metrics from backtest results. Understanding these metrics helps you evaluate risk-adjusted returns, consistency, and overall strategy quality beyond simple profit percentages.

Beyond Raw Returns

A strategy with 50% return and low drawdowns can be better than one with 100% return and massive volatility. These metrics help you evaluate risk-adjusted performance and consistency.

Return Metrics

Total Return (%)

Formula: (Final Equity - Initial Equity) / Initial Equity × 100

The overall percentage gain or loss over the entire backtest period. This is the most basic performance measure.

Excellent: >50%

Strong performance

Good: 20-50%

Solid returns

Poor: <20%

Needs improvement

Annualized Return (%)

Formula: (1 + Total Return) ^ (1 / Years) - 1

The return normalized to a one-year period. Allows fair comparison between strategies tested on different time periods. More useful than total return for comparison.

Example: A strategy with 20% return over 6 months has ~44% annualized return. This helps compare it to a strategy with 30% over 1 year (30% annualized).

Risk Metrics

Annualized Volatility (%)

Formula: StdDev(Daily Returns) × √252

Measures how much returns fluctuate day-to-day. Higher volatility = more unpredictable returns and psychological stress. Lower is generally better.

Low: <20%

Stable, predictable

Medium: 20-40%

Moderate swings

High: >40%

Wild, stressful

Max Drawdown (%)

Formula: (Peak - Trough) / Peak × 100

The largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value. Represents the worst-case loss an investor would have experienced. Critical for risk management.

Excellent: <15%

Very safe

Acceptable: 15-30%

Manageable

High Risk: >30%

Dangerous

Why it matters: A 50% drawdown requires a 100% return just to break even. Psychologically, most traders abandon strategies after 30-40% drawdowns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Sharpe Ratio

Formula: (Annualized Return - Risk Free Rate) / Annualized Volatility

The most widely used metric for risk-adjusted returns. Measures excess return per unit of risk. Higher is better - means more return for the same risk.

<0

Losing money

0-1

Sub-optimal

1-2

Good

>2

Excellent

Real-world context: S&P 500 has Sharpe ~0.5-0.8. Hedge funds target >1.0. Quant funds aim for >2.0. A backtest with Sharpe >2.0 is exceptional.

Sortino Ratio

Formula: (Annualized Return - Risk Free Rate) / Downside Deviation

Similar to Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility (negative returns). More accurate for strategies with asymmetric return distributions. Higher is better.

When to prioritize: Use Sortino over Sharpe when comparing strategies that have different upside/downside characteristics. It better captures "bad" volatility.

Calmar Ratio

Formula: Annualized Return / |Max Drawdown|

Compares returns to worst-case drawdown. Higher is better - means good returns relative to maximum pain experienced.

<1.0

Weak

1.0-3.0

Good

>3.0

Excellent

Trading Activity Metrics

Win Rate (Daily) (%)

Formula: (Profitable Days / Total Days) × 100

Percentage of days with positive returns. Note: This is NOT the same as trade win rate - it measures daily profitability consistency.

Interpretation: 50-55% is typical for good strategies. Much higher (>70%) might indicate over-fitting. Much lower (<45%) suggests inconsistent performance.

Number of Days

Total days in the backtest period. More days = more statistically significant results.

  • Minimum: 60 days (~2 months) for initial testing
  • Recommended: 180+ days (6 months) for reliable metrics
  • Ideal: 365+ days (1 year) to capture different market conditions

Comparing Strategies

Use these metrics to objectively compare different strategies:

Example Comparison

MetricStrategy AStrategy BWinner
Total Return87%52%Strategy A
Max Drawdown-38%-18%Strategy B
Sharpe Ratio1.21.8Strategy B
Volatility42%24%Strategy B
OverallStrategy B

Strategy A has higher returns but Strategy B wins on risk-adjusted metrics. For most traders, Strategy B is the better choice despite lower absolute returns.

Quick Reference Summary

Focus on Returns

  • Total Return
  • Annualized Return

Focus on Risk

  • Max Drawdown
  • Volatility

Focus on Risk-Adjusted

  • Sharpe Ratio (most important)
  • Sortino Ratio
  • Calmar Ratio

Focus on Consistency

  • Win Rate (Daily)
  • Equity curve smoothness

Final Advice: Don't optimize for a single metric. A good strategy balances returns, risk, and consistency. Sharpe ratio >1.5, max drawdown <25%, and smooth equity curve is an excellent target.

What's Next?